You have made it to the championship! Or…as I said before, if you are league has its championship next week, you’re doing it wrong. This is the week that bragging rights are made of, and it happens to kickoff with a game on Christmas. Below are some observations for this championship week, hopefully they help you win the hardware in your league. Thank you for reading my work all year, and hopefully you have enjoyed the articles. Stay safe this holiday season and best of luck!
Be sure to reach out with your Start/Sit, or other fantasy questions to me directly on Twitter at @BGunnWMU or @FGBros
Jared Goff, QB, LA Rams: Goff is currently being ranked outside of the top 15 quarterbacks for Week 16. The Rams’ signal caller has really been a curious case this year, as he has thrown for over 275 yards or multiple touchdowns in 11 of his 15 matchups this year, but has ping-ponged all over the place in the rankings once the weeks have concluded. What we know about his matchup this week, is that he plays a Seattle team that is the 27th toughest matchup against opposing quarterbacks. That isn’t the number that I want to focus on though. Goff is terrible against the pass rush, ranking just 45th in the NFL in adjusted pass completion when under pressure. There is some silver lining here however, as Seattle has only the 31st ranked pass rush according to Pro Football Focus. The Rams also boast a top 5 defense against both opposing quarterbacks (1st) and the running back position (5th). The defense should give the Berkley product ample opportunity to have the ball in his hands as the Seattle offense has been sputtering as of late. Goff will finish in the top 12 this year against a porous Seattle defense.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee: Tannehill is being ranked inside of the top 10 this week, and I am having a hard time figuring out the path for him to get there. The only viable reasoning that can explain it is that this game has been set as the highest over/under point total by Las Vegas at 55.5 total points. That is the lone case I can make for Tannehill, now let me tell you why I am fading him. Tennessee trots out a bottom 3 pass rush each week, which is partially responsible for the 5th best matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Do they stop the run well at least? Nope. They allow the 7th most points to opposing running backs. Green Bay’s offense being on the field is bad for Tennessee largely due to this up-and-coming quarterback prospect named Aaron Rodgers. So how can Tennessee possibly keep Green Bay’s offense off the field? Oh, I don’t know, maybe by sustaining long, punishing drives? Sure, that sounds like an idea. But wait, doesn’t Green Bay defend the run well? No sir, they allow the 5th most points to opposing running backs. So, the Packer’s pass defense must be equally as bad? No, they allow the 8th least amount of points to opposing QBs. So, Derrick Henry should see 30 touches this game? Yes. Okay, well I am not sure what that was, but hopefully the conversation with myself written out in text was enough for you to see that Tannehill should not be a clear start this week.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle: The Seahawks have been the epitome of a balanced offense as of late, with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde getting as many touches as Russell Wilson has pass attempts. It has proven to be a winning formula with the Seahawks winning the last 2 games, whereas relying against Russ’ arm against the New York Giants proved costly. This week’s NFC West showdown will go a long way in determining the winner of the division with the Rams besting Seattle the first time they met. In that matchup, Russell Wilson was held under 250 yards, while throwing 0 touchdowns, and completing 2 passes to the Rams defense (interceptions). This was not an anomaly as the Rams defense has been the least productive matchup for opposing quarterbacks this year. I am not saying that Wilson’s stat line will match that of the first matchup, but I do think that if Seattle is going to win this game (I think they do) it will be largely a product of the balanced offense that was a staple in their last two victories. Wilson is being projected as a top 8 option, but Pete Carrol just isn’t letting him cook anymore. Count on Russ to finish as a low-end QB1 this week.