Congrats to those of you that made it past the first round of your fantasy playoffs, and welcome to those of you who got to take last week off due to earning a bye week. Based on texts from friends, and interactions with some Twitter followers, I have to make a PSA. If you have made it this far in the fantasy season, you have a good team. This is not the time of year to get cute, or become the smartest guy in the room. Play your studs, drop dead weight on your bench for guys that are trending up (Russell Gage, Jeff Wilson, Jaylen Hurts), and have fun. That is all for this week, just a simple reminder that overthinking can be the downfall of a good team. Tyler Lockett for example, hasn’t been great as of late, but would you rather he is in your lineup producing his modest 7-10 points, or on your bench when he goes off for 30 (that being said, I do not necessarily care for Lockett’s matchup this week)? As always, thank you for your support, your interaction, and supporting me in something I have always wanted to do. Good luck this week.
Be sure to reach out with your Start/Sit, or other fantasy questions to me directly on Twitter at @BGunnWMU or @FGBros
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis: Recency bias in fantasy can be a thing. There is a fine line between a temporary peak/regression in production, and a track record, and there is a reason that I point this out. Hilton’s production tends to lean toward what is a track record. Why do I say this? He has led the team in targets in 3 of the last 4 games and produced in a big way with those targets. Many including myself thought that we may have seen Hilton’s best days behind him early in the season (he was dropped in a ton of leagues), but he has bounced back in a big way as of late.
Things seem as if they will continue in that direction as Indianapolis plays a pass defense in Houston that is in the bottom 10 in the league against opposing wide receivers. The only potential downside I see in this game, is that it is a potential smash spot for teammate Jonathan Taylor as well, with the Texans ranking dead last against the run. They were both able to produce against Las Vegas last week though, and with Hilton only being ranked outside of the top 24 receivers, it is safe to say he will outperform his ranking, as he will finish in the top 12.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago: Over the last three weeks, Montgomery is 2nd only to Derrick Henry at the runningback position in scoring. You may ask why Hilton is the start of the week, while Montgomery is the sit of the week using production over a similar timeframe, and it’s a fair question. What I would tell you is that, Montgomery is not getting any more touches in his past 3 outings than he has averaged all season to this point, and actually, he had a few less touches. He produced in large part by splash plays and/or weak opponents over that span, with a 57 yard run in Week 12, playing the Lions defense in Week 13, and an 80 yard touchdown run against the Texans in week 14.
Montgomery’s track record (see, full circle) is not one of big plays, or a guy that defenses really have to shift their approach for, and I believe that will be evident this weekend against the Vikings. They are a middle of the road run defense (a bit worse of late), but they are not nearly as bad of a defense as Minnesota and Detroit trot out on a weekly basis. The Bears may find themselves behind in this matchup, and if so, Montgomery will have a hard time delivering on that top 7 projection the last 3 weeks have earned him. You are probably starting him, but your expectations should land somewhere between weeks 1-10 D-Mo over the guy we saw in weeks 12-14.